Finance

The Economy: Drums of Uncertainty Beat Louder and Closer

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Just a year ago I wrote that Q2 2018 was a wonderful quarter with GDP jumping 4.3 percent. However, I suggested that the hyperbole coming out of the Trump administration that we're roaring back to a 4+ percent growth economy was just that. Hyperbole. Most economists believed that this positive blip was a result of the new tax breaks and a minimal increase in wages, a proverbial one-off, which, indeed, it was. They believed that the blip would settle back into a 2 to 2.5 percent economy, which, indeed, it did. And since 70 percent of our GDP is …

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The Rise and Fall of the Middle Class: A Retail Cancer

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Is the retail industry, and for that matter, all consumer-facing industries in denial? Actually I think they have not yet detected the real cancer, soon to metastasize. A lot of the coverup has been perpetuated by politicians and some economists who continue to declare that we've had the longest economic recovery in the history of recessions. Some would say it's the slowest recovery ever, with GDP growth wobbling around 2 to 2.5 percent annually over the ten years since the Great Recession, compared to 3 to 6 percent growth following WWII, …

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Richard Baker is my Name – Real Estate is my Game

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What does Eddie "fast buck" Lampert have to do with this? Before I get to the significance of the title of this article and HBC's "go private plan," I stated in an article way back in 2014 that Richard Baker is a brilliant real estate mogul and that Eddie "brilliant financier" Lampert should hire him. A bit of tongue-in-cheek, I said "Now that Eddie "sell the assets" Lampert is turning his dying retail business into a real estate play, he should retain Richard Baker as a consultant. If Lampert can afford him. Of course, Richard doesn't need …

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The Terror of Tariffs: Retailers See It Very Differently Than The Trump Administration

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They say there are two sides to every story and no doubt the situation with tariffs that is threatening trade between China and the United States is no different. But the contrast in how America's retailers see the problem - "catastrophic" is a word you are starting to hear more and more frequently - and how the Trump Administration portrays it - "there is absolutely no need to rush" the President said in a recent tweet - points to a disconnect that could cripple the American economy…taking down retailers with it. Ever since the …

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Buy Now, Wear Now, Pay Later!

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Layaway as we know it has changed considerably over time, and it seems antiquated when today's millennials are looking for higher levels of instant gratification than consumers of the past. As such, there has been a rise in the buy-now, wear-now, pay-later tech-enabled business model where shoppers can take home their purchases immediately, while paying in instalments. In the past, retailers would have the burden of storing layaway inventory until the customer had the funds to pay it off. Once the item was completely paid for, the customer …

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The U.S./China Trade War: Lose Face, Lose Everything

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No one can dispute that free trade should be fair to both sides. And no one can dispute that the U.S. and China trade relationship (the biggest among all nations) has been unbalanced in favor of China for several decades. But to be accusatory towards China for treating us unfairly is a bit hypocritical. Our industries were more than willing (maybe even happy) to relinquish huge chunks of our economy's manufacturing base to China's low-cost work force so that we could turn around and import lower-cost finished goods, that in turn would benefit …

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A Taxing Situation

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The United States Supreme Court, that bastion of jurisprudence which increasingly thinks constitutional issues are political footballs, has decided to give states permission to collect taxes from online retailers, a ruling that could be worth an estimated $450 billion. Is taxing the e-commerce marketplace a good idea? This has been a thorn in retailing’s paw ever since Amazon sold its first book and there are good arguments on both sides of the issue. The impetus for this perceived windfall was the Supreme Court’s recent five-to-four …

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Retail’s Mid-Year Physical Exam

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2018 has lived up to its billing. The year promised zaniness amid the industry-wide “crack-up,” and it has not disappointed. The last six months have raised as many questions as answers. It is appropriate that we now pause and pull our heads above water to take a closer look at the industry’s mid-year report card. Required Annual Exam Now that I am in my forties, an annual physical exam has become a rite of passage. Everything that can be checked is checked, everything that can be drawn is drawn and everything that can be brought up to scare …

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