Finance

The Federal Reserve has dramatically raised interest rates over the past few months focused on taming inflation. While some data [and hopeful thinking] suggest that inflation may have recently peaked, we have yet to see major price moderation. The economy however has started to shift gears indicating that deceleration may be at hand. Four emerging factors will impact the retail economic picture in coming months. We are seeing big changes in real estate, consumer preferences, shopping channels and human capital. Real Estate Stumbles Into a …

Shifting Economic Gears Present Challenges for RetailersRead More

It’s no secret the holiday season is a key sales period for retail, travel, and many other industries, so much so that these sales can make or break a business, large or small. With high inflation and fears of consumers pulling back, there are a lot of unknowns this year. To that end, Commerce Signals has produced a Holiday Spending Forecast to help companies with scenario planning. They do this through permissioned and anonymized view of consumer spending that includes both Visa and Mastercard, credit and debit for 40 million …

Happy Holiday ShoppingRead More

Across the United States, prices have been increasing across all industries. In July, inflation stood at 8.5%, down slightly from 9.1% in June -– the highest U.S. inflation seen since 1981. Yet, total consumer credit card spending grew 14.6% in July compared to a year earlier. The strong jobs market and high consumer savings rates during the pandemic have aided consumers spending above inflation. Find out how recent inflation has impacted consumer spending and predictions of what’s to come. Download this fascinating report, created with …

How Has Inflation Affected Consumer Spending?Read More

Target has been one of the biggest winners in the toy business since the 2018 liquidation of Toys"R"Us. The demise of the only sizable national toy chain enabled discounters (led by Walmart, Amazon, and Target) to extend their growing dominance in toy sales. That said, a disappointing holiday performance in 2019 taught Target that success has to be earned. An omnichannel partnership with a relaunched Toys"R"Us (under new ownership) failed to meet expectations, as Target's toy sales remained flat during the 2019 holiday season relative to …

Target’s FAO Schwarz Partnership Is No Game ChangerRead More

Off-price retail leader TJX faced a big test after the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020. Like other discretionary retailers, it was forced to close its stores for weeks (or months, in some jurisdictions). Meanwhile, mass merchants like Target stayed open, enabling them to capture discretionary sales. Even after TJX reopened its stores, customer traffic initially remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Many consumers continued to shift discretionary spending to ecommerce or mass merchants to minimize the number of shopping trips …

Even When It Loses, TJX Always WinsRead More

When Tritton took the top job in late 2019, the iconic home furnishings destination desperately needed a reinvention. The former Target chief merchant rapidly implemented long-overdue strategy changes. While one could quarrel with some of his decisions (e.g., abruptly changing Bed Bath & Beyond's product sourcing strategy and initially prioritizing merchandising changes over supply chain modernization), most of his plans made sense. Unfortunately, the supply chain snarls of 2021 and plunging demand for home furnishings in recent months …

The Share Buyback That Killed Bed Bath & BeyondRead More

Christopher Waller, a senior Federal Reserve official, announced on May 30, that he supports the U.S. central bank’s main interest rate to rise to a level at which it starts to stunt economic growth by the end of the year, with increases in interest rates at every meeting until inflation is decisively curbed. This strategy is thought to have been successful in the past in mitigating inflation and hopes are that it will do so again. But the Fed may be taking a huge gamble considering today’s volatile climate. The current economy may be …

A Cogent Economic ReviewRead More