Finance

A funny thing happened on the way to the next recession: the consumer said, “No thanks.” With surprisingly strong retail sales numbers for January, shoppers are continuing to act like it’s business as usual when it comes to buying things. Driven by high employment numbers, a modest reduction in inflation and even increased social security payments for seniors, the overall economy remains basically healthy. But if it’s business mostly as usual for shoppers, it’s anything but for retailers. With memories of getting caught flatfooted in …

The Retail Party’s Not Over…It Just Has a Different MenuRead More

A spate of bankruptcies has plagued the U.S. retail landscape over the past decade. During this time, private equity firms have come under scrutiny due to a slew of bankruptcy filings by private equity-backed retailers: most notably, Toys R Us. A stimulus-powered surge in consumer spending caused the pace of retail bankruptcy filings to slow dramatically in 2021 and 2022. However, 2023 is set to be a much tougher year as consumers rein in spending and financial markets tighten. That could lead to another round of bankruptcies among retailers …

Private Equity Owners: Not Always Toxic for RetailRead More

Just a year or two ago, many people believed that the Covid-19 pandemic had sparked a massive, permanent acceleration of ecommerce adoption. This thesis became the conventional wisdom among executives at pure-play ecommerce retailers and other companies that stood to benefit from ecommerce growth. These rosy forecasts haven't panned out, though. Many consumers have returned to their pre-pandemic shopping habits over the past two years, favoring brick-and-mortar stores. High inflation and a shift in spending priorities away from merchandise …

Winter Arrives for Ecommerce DarlingsRead More

The Federal Reserve has dramatically raised interest rates over the past few months focused on taming inflation. While some data [and hopeful thinking] suggest that inflation may have recently peaked, we have yet to see major price moderation. The economy however has started to shift gears indicating that deceleration may be at hand. Four emerging factors will impact the retail economic picture in coming months. We are seeing big changes in real estate, consumer preferences, shopping channels and human capital. Real Estate Stumbles Into a …

Shifting Economic Gears Present Challenges for RetailersRead More

It’s no secret the holiday season is a key sales period for retail, travel, and many other industries, so much so that these sales can make or break a business, large or small. With high inflation and fears of consumers pulling back, there are a lot of unknowns this year. To that end, Commerce Signals has produced a Holiday Spending Forecast to help companies with scenario planning. They do this through permissioned and anonymized view of consumer spending that includes both Visa and Mastercard, credit and debit for 40 million …

Happy Holiday ShoppingRead More

Across the United States, prices have been increasing across all industries. In July, inflation stood at 8.5%, down slightly from 9.1% in June -– the highest U.S. inflation seen since 1981. Yet, total consumer credit card spending grew 14.6% in July compared to a year earlier. The strong jobs market and high consumer savings rates during the pandemic have aided consumers spending above inflation. Find out how recent inflation has impacted consumer spending and predictions of what’s to come. Download this fascinating report, created with …

How Has Inflation Affected Consumer Spending?Read More

Target has been one of the biggest winners in the toy business since the 2018 liquidation of Toys"R"Us. The demise of the only sizable national toy chain enabled discounters (led by Walmart, Amazon, and Target) to extend their growing dominance in toy sales. That said, a disappointing holiday performance in 2019 taught Target that success has to be earned. An omnichannel partnership with a relaunched Toys"R"Us (under new ownership) failed to meet expectations, as Target's toy sales remained flat during the 2019 holiday season relative to …

Target’s FAO Schwarz Partnership Is No Game ChangerRead More

Off-price retail leader TJX faced a big test after the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020. Like other discretionary retailers, it was forced to close its stores for weeks (or months, in some jurisdictions). Meanwhile, mass merchants like Target stayed open, enabling them to capture discretionary sales. Even after TJX reopened its stores, customer traffic initially remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Many consumers continued to shift discretionary spending to ecommerce or mass merchants to minimize the number of shopping trips …

Even When It Loses, TJX Always WinsRead More