With news that both Melbourne, Australia-based Afterpay and Minneapolis native Sezzle are planning IPOs on U.S. stock exchanges in the months ahead, joining San Francisco-based Affirm which bowed on the Nasdaq in January, it’s clear that the Buy Now, Pay Later sector has matured from that of novel fintech startup concept to one with major staying power. And the repercussions of this trend on how customers pay will have a lasting and fundamental impact on the U.S. retail landscape, and beyond. BNPL For anyone not familiar with Buy Now, Pay …
Finance
Amazon/MGM – Not What You Think
Over the past decade I’ve been blathering on about this being the distribution century, meaning that consumers and retailers, both armed with technology, would drive multitudes of different avenues of distribution. These new distribution channels are more convenient and faster for consumers; and more efficient, effective, and competitively advantageous for retailers and brands. Shared Platforms So, in trying to explain the distribution thesis more pragmatically, and with clarity, I describe how all retailers and brands could achieve targeted …
Macy’s Off-Price Gambit Is the Only Way Forward
In recent weeks, Macy's has resumed expanding its Backstage off-price chain, following a pause while the department store giant fought through the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic last year. Since the beginning of April, the company has opened 26 new Backstage stores within full-line Macy's locations. That brings the Backstage store count to an even 250. Another eight new locations are set to open on May 15, putting Macy's close to its target of opening 45 new Backstage stores within Macy's full-line stores in 2021. The retailer also plans to …
Inflation Worries? Not a Chance!
I feel safe aligning my economic view with that of Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, then with a bunch of traditional, last century economists who define inflation as it was during the most explosive growth period in U.S. history (1950 to 1980). They envision a post-pandemic economic surge, believing that the trillions of dollars fire hosed into the economy to keep it from collapsing will meet head on with consumers' post-pandemic pent-up demand, with trillions in personal savings …
NRF Holiday Forecast at Risk
For the last 25 years, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has kicked off the holiday shopping season in early October with its forecast for holiday retail spending, covering the critical November-December retail sales. This year, however, it waited until the end of November to make its prediction, and as per usual, it was exceedingly optimistic. NRF’s Retail View According to NRF, retail sales will rise between 3.6 percent to 5.2 percent this year for the last two months of the year, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and …
Beauty’s Shifting M&A Landscape
As a beauty journalist who came of age in the 1990s, I was shocked and a little sad to see that Perricone MD, a proto "doctor brand" that made its debut during that era, recently changed hands for a mere $60M. When unicorns and "near-unicorns" (my very unofficial term for brands approaching the billion-dollar mark) like Morphe, Charlotte Tilbury and Drunk Elephant are fetching $2.2B, $1B and $845M, respectively, it's easy to feel like any majority stake or outright acquisition that doesn't reach at least the $100M mark has fallen …
Heading into the Homestretch, It’s Sycamore by a Mile
During this whirlwind of retail bankruptcies, while the pandemic rages on with no end in sight, it should be a field day for private equity firms, awash in cash, to swoop in like vultures to acquire these bankrupt retailers on the cheap. However, several experts in the space told me that many of them are holding their "powder" (not acquiring) because of the big unknown. That is, without some indication of when the pandemic will end, how it will end and when consumers will feel safe enough to return to physical shopping. What will the ultimate …
Heading into the Homestretch, It’s Sycamore by a MileRead More
What’s Money Got to Do with It?
There are certain commonalities, trends, and uncertainties we should (hopefully) have top of mind as we take this epic journey that increasingly looks to be lasting a while. To set the stage, read this article by John Mauldin, whom I have a lot of respect for. You won't like it -- I don't like it -- but I've never thought it was my job to help you think happy thoughts. John is telling you something important more succinctly than I could (and with great charts!). The 10-Qs and 10-Ks for VF, Deckers, The Buckle, Tilly's, Abercrombie …